Monitor public opinion through the latest statewide, non-partisan polls.
Proposition 4
Voter preference among likely voters
The Field Poll
The latest Field Poll found support and opposition for Prop. 4 in a statistical dead heat among likely voters (45 percent to 43 percent). This represents an 8 percent decrease in support for Prop. 4 since the late September Field Poll. (Field Poll margin of error is +/- 3 percent.)
Proposition 4
Voter Preferences toward Prop. 4 by Party Identification
The Field Poll
Party identification is the single strongest predictor of voter preference for Prop. 4, 65 percent of Republicans support Prop. 4 and only 26 percent oppose. Alternatively, only 31 percent of Democrats support and 56 percent oppose Prop. 4. (Field Poll sub-sample margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent)
Proposition 4
Voter preferences by education level
The Field Poll
Education level is another strong predictor of voter preference for Prop 4. Likely voters with a high school diploma or less were most likely to support the measure (53 percent to 31 percent), while voters with a post graduate education were least likely to support the measure with 36 percent supporting and 50 percent opposing. (Field Poll sub-sample margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent)
Proposition 4
Voter preferences by gender
The Field Poll
The Field Poll found that gender is a weak predictor of voter preference for Prop. 4. Men support Prop. 4 by 48 percent and oppose by 43 percent. Women are more equally divided with 42 percent supporting and 43 percent opposing. (Field Poll sub-sample margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent)
Proposition 4
Voter preferences by age
The Field Poll
Voters 65 and older support the measure 50 percent to 36 percent compared to the youngest voters (18-34) who support the measure 46 percent to 42 percent. All age groups were more likely to support the measure than oppose, except voters age 50-64 who opposed the measure 49 percent to 38 percent. (Field Poll sub-sample margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent)
Proposition 4
Voter preference among likely voters
The Field Poll
Among likely voters, 49% support, 41% oppose, and 10% are undecided about Prop. 4 in the final two months before the 2008 election. Support for the measure falls along partisan lines, with 69% of Republicans supporting the measure compared to 39% of Democrats. Public opinion for the initiative has shifted only slightly since July, when likely voters supported the measure by 48% to 39%.
See the poll
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