Monitor public opinion through the latest statewide, non-partisan polls.
The Field Poll
With such strong support early on in the 2006 election season, why did Prop. 86 fail? In his analysis of pre-election Field Poll results, Mark DiCamillo sheds light on the reasons behind the defeat of Prop. 86 in the November 2006 statewide election.
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Proposition 86
Voter preference among likely voters
The Field Poll
Support for Prop. 86 has fallen even further since its ten-point drop between July and late September. Just a week before the election, likely voters are split 45-45 for and against the measure, while ten percent are undecided. Ballot measures in California need 50 percent of the vote to pass.
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Proposition 86
Voter preference among likely voters
The Field Poll
Since the August poll, support for Prop. 86 has fallen ten points, from 63 down to 53 percent of likely voters. Forty percent plan to vote “no,” and seven percent have not decided. Support has declined across most demographic groups, but the largest drops have been among women, Northern Californians outside the Bay Area, conservatives, senior citizens, and non-smokers. Smokers remain the most unanimous opponents, with 77 percent against the measure.
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Proposition 86
Voter preference among likely voters
The Field Poll
Just over two months before the election, only 26 percent of likely voters report that they knew of Prop. 86 before pollsters asked them about it. When read the official ballot summary of the measure, voters support it two to one (63 to 32 percent) according to the latest Field Poll. Support varies by smoking status, party affiliation, political ideology, gender and race/ethnicity.
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