Proposition 1E
Voter Preferences Among Likely Voters

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Proposition 1D
Voter Preferences Among Likely Voters

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Proposition 1D
Voter Preferences by Party Affiliation

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Voter Perceptions of the Impact of Prop. 1D
(Health & Human Services Spending)

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Proposition 1E
Voter Preferences by Party Affiliation

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Voter Perceptions of the Impact of Prop. 1E
(Mental Health Spending)

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Proposition 1E
Preferences Among Likely Voters

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Proposition 1D
Preferences Among Likely Voters

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Proposition 1E
Voter Preferences by Race/Ethnicity

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Proposition 1E
Voter Preferences by Party Affiliation

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Proposition 1D
Voter Preferences by Race/Ethnicity

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Proposition 1D
Voter Preferences by Party Affiliation

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Proposition 1E
Voter Preferences Among Registered and Likely Voters

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Proposition 1D
Voter Preferences Among Registered and Likely Voters

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Proposition 4
Voter preference among likely voters

The latest Field Poll found support and opposition for Prop. 4 in a statistical dead heat among likely voters (45 percent to 43 percent). This represents an 8 percent decrease in support for Prop. 4 since the late September Field Poll. (Field Poll margin of error is +/- 3 percent.)

Proposition 4
Voter Preferences toward Prop. 4 by Party Identification

Party identification is the single strongest predictor of voter preference for Prop. 4, 65 percent of Republicans support Prop. 4 and only 26 percent oppose. Alternatively, only 31 percent of Democrats support and 56 percent oppose Prop. 4. (Field Poll sub-sample margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent)

Proposition 4
Voter preferences by education level

Education level is another strong predictor of voter preference for Prop 4. Likely voters with a high school diploma or less were most likely to support the measure (53 percent to 31 percent), while voters with a post graduate education were least likely to support the measure with 36 percent supporting and 50 percent opposing. (Field Poll sub-sample margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent)

Proposition 4
Voter preferences by gender

The Field Poll found that gender is a weak predictor of voter preference for Prop. 4. Men support Prop. 4 by 48 percent and oppose by 43 percent. Women are more equally divided with 42 percent supporting and 43 percent opposing. (Field Poll sub-sample margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent)

Proposition 4
Voter preferences by age

Voters 65 and older support the measure 50 percent to 36 percent compared to the youngest voters (18-34) who support the measure 46 percent to 42 percent. All age groups were more likely to support the measure than oppose, except voters age 50-64 who opposed the measure 49 percent to 38 percent. (Field Poll sub-sample margin of error is +/- 4.6 percent)

Proposition 3
Voter preference among likely voters

The latest Field Poll found likely voters support for Prop. 3 increased to 54 percent, while opposition remained constant at 35 percent. Eleven percent of likely voters are undecided, down from the 18 percent in late September. This represents a 7 percent increase in likely voter support since the September 30 Field Poll. (Field Poll margin of error is +/- 3 percent)

Proposition 3
Voter preference by age

The Field Poll found the strongest predictor of support for Prop. 3 is age. Younger voters (18-34) overwhelmingly support the measure (66 percent) and 50-64 year olds are the least likely to support (42 percent). (Field Poll subset margin of error is +/- 4.6)

Proposition 3
Voter preferences by party affiliation

The Field Poll found another strong predictor of support for Prop. 3 is party identification. Democrats and non-partisans support the measure by about two to one. Republican support is divided with 43 percent supporting and 49 percent opposing the measure. (Field Poll subset margin of error is +/- 4.6)

Proposition 3
Voter preferences by gender

The Field Poll found that gender did not play a significant role in Prop. 3 support. Both men and women support Prop. 3 equally (54 percent), but men were more likely to oppose (38 percent) than women (31 percent). Prop. 3 undecided voters were twice as likely to be women. (Field Poll subset margin of error is +/- 4.6)

Proposition 3
Voter preference among likely voters

Of likely voters, 47% support and 35% oppose Prop. 3. Support for the initiative is divided along partisan lines, with Democrats supporting the initiative by 2-to-1 and Republicans opposing the initiative by 3-to-5. With fewer than two months before the election, 18% of likely voters remain undecided.

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Proposition 4
Voter preference among likely voters

Among likely voters, 49% support, 41% oppose, and 10% are undecided about Prop. 4 in the final two months before the 2008 election. Support for the measure falls along partisan lines, with 69% of Republicans supporting the measure compared to 39% of Democrats. Public opinion for the initiative has shifted only slightly since July, when likely voters supported the measure by 48% to 39%.

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With such strong support early on in the 2006 election season, why did Prop. 86 fail? In his analysis of pre-election Field Poll results, Mark DiCamillo sheds light on the reasons behind the defeat of Prop. 86 in the November 2006 statewide election.

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Proposition 86
Voter preference among likely voters

Support for Prop. 86 has fallen even further since its ten-point drop between July and late September. Just a week before the election, likely voters are split 45-45 for and against the measure, while ten percent are undecided. Ballot measures in California need 50 percent of the vote to pass.

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Proposition 85
Voter preference among likely voters

Likely voter opinion on Prop. 85 has changed very little since July. Support has risen two points to 46 percent, and opposition has fallen two points to 44 percent. Just a week before the election, 11 percent of likely voters are still undecided. Ballot measures in California need 50 percent of the vote to pass.

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Proposition 86
Voter preference among likely voters

Since the August poll, support for Prop. 86 has fallen ten points, from 63 down to 53 percent of likely voters. Forty percent plan to vote “no,” and seven percent have not decided. Support has declined across most demographic groups, but the largest drops have been among women, Northern Californians outside the Bay Area, conservatives, senior citizens, and non-smokers. Smokers remain the most unanimous opponents, with 77 percent against the measure.

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Proposition 86
Voter preference among likely voters

Just over two months before the election, only 26 percent of likely voters report that they knew of Prop. 86 before pollsters asked them about it. When read the official ballot summary of the measure, voters support it two to one (63 to 32 percent) according to the latest Field Poll. Support varies by smoking status, party affiliation, political ideology, gender and race/ethnicity.

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Proposition 85
Voter preference among likely voters

Likely voters are divided over Prop. 85, with 44 percent for and 45 percent against the measure. The most recent Field Poll finds that voters are much more aware of Prop. 85 than of other measures on the upcoming ballot; this is probably because of its similarity to Prop. 73, which appeared in Governor Schwarzenegger’s November 2005 special election. Support varies widely by party affiliation, gender and religion.

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Proposition 73
Voter preference among likely voters

As the election nears, Prop. 73 is losing support according to the November 2 Field Poll. Of likely voters, 49 percent oppose the measure, while 41 percent support it. By contrast, Prop. 73 supporters outnumbered opponents a week ago (October 18-24): 45 percent of likely voters supported the measure, while 43 percent opposed it. Support has fallen from 48 to 41 percent of likely voters since late June.

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Proposition 79
Voter preference among likely voters

Support for Prop. 79 has declined since late June, falling from 48 to 37 percent of likely voters according to the November 2 Field Poll. Opponents of the measure now outnumber proponents by a 43 to 37 percent margin, while 20 percent of likely voters are undecided. A similar pattern has emerged for Prop. 79’s rival prescription drug discount measure, Prop. 78.

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Proposition 78
Voter preference among likely voters

Support for Prop. 78 has declined steadily since late June, falling from 57 to 36 percent of likely voters according to the November 2 Field Poll. Opponents of the measure now outnumber proponents by a 45 to 36 percent margin, and 19 percent of likely voters are undecided. A similar pattern has emerged for Prop. 78’s rival prescription drug discount measure, Prop. 79.

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Proposition 73
Voter preference among likely voters

Voter support for Prop. 73 eroded 3% since the June 23 poll. Currently voters are evenly divided on Prop. 73, with 45 percent intending to vote Yes and 45 percent intending to vote No. Republicans, conservatives, Protestants, and born-again Christians are the voter subgroups most in favor of the parental notification initiative. Those most opposed include Democrats, liberals, non-Christians and those with no religious preference.

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Proposition 79
Voter preference among likely voters

When likely voters are read Prop. 79's official title and ballot summary and asked how they would vote, 42 percent say they would vote Yes, 34 percent would vote No and 24 percent are undecided. The results also show that voters at this stage have a very low recognition of each initiative’s main proponents, and that knowledge of sponsorship has a big potential impact on voting intentions. Voters were told that consumer advocacy and labor groups were supporting Prop. 79 and asked what effect, if any, this would have on their vote. Overall, 40 percent say that knowledge of who’s backing Prop. 79 makes them more likely to vote Yes, while 24 percent say it makes them more likely to vote No. Another quarter (24 percent) say that the support of these groups has no effect on their vote on Prop. 79, and 12 percent have no opinion.

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Proposition 78
Voter preference among likely voters

Both Propositions 78 and 79 are leading, albeit by different margins. When likely voters are read Prop. 78’s official title and ballot summary and asked how they would vote if the election were being held today, 49% say they would be inclined to vote Yes, 31% are inclined to vote No and 20% are undecided. The results also show that voters at this stage have a very low recognition of each initiative’s main proponents, and that knowledge of sponsorship has a big potential impact on voting intentions. Voters were told that the major pharmaceutical companies were supporting Prop. 78 and asked what effect, if any, this would potentially have on their vote. Overall, 19 percent say this would make them more likely to vote Yes, but more than twice as many (44 percent) said this would make them more likely to vote No. Another one in four (23 percent) report that drug companies’ support for Prop. 78 would have no effect on how they would vote and 14 percent had no opinion.

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Proposition 79
Voter preference among likely voters

Voters are initially supportive of the two prescription drug discount initiatives (Propositions 78 and 79) that will appear on the November election ballot. Between the two initiatives, Prop. 79 lags a bit behind Prop. 78: it is behind by 7 points among Democrats (57 percent of Democrats support Prop. 79), 9 points among Republicans (37 percent) and 16 points among non-partisans and others (47 percent).

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Proposition 73
Voter preference among likely voters

A plurality of voters, 48 percent, supports Prop. 73, while 43 percent oppose the measure. Republicans, conservatives, Protestants, and born-again Christians are the voter subgroups most in favor of the parental notification initiative. Those most opposed include Democrats, liberals, non-Christians and those with no religious preference.

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Proposition 78
Voter preference among likely voters

Voters are initially supportive of the two prescription drug discount initiatives (Propositions 78 and 79) that will appear on the November election ballot. Between the two initiatives, Proposition 78 leads by 7 points among Democrats (64 percent of Democrats support Prop. 78), 9 points among Republicans (46 percent) and 16 points among non-partisans and others (63 percent).

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Proposition 72
Voter preference among likely voters

The voting subgroups opposed to Prop. 72 include Republicans, men, white non-Hispanics, high income earners and those less concerned about being without health insurance in the future. Supporters include Democrats, non-partisans, ethnic voters, lower income earners and voters with greater concerns about being without health insurance.

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Proposition 71
Voter preference among likely voters

There are clear partisan differences of opinion regarding Prop. 71. Democrats and supporters of John Kerry for President are overwhelmingly supportive. On the other hand, Republicans and those favoring George W. Bush's re-election stand opposed.

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Proposition 63
Voter preference among likely voters

Democrats are strongly supportive 72 percent to 12 percent. Non-partisans are also in favor 57 percent to 32 percent. On the other hand, Republicans are opposed 53 percent to 36 percent.

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Proposition 61
Voter preference among likely voters

Democrats strongly support the bond measure, while Republicans are narrowly opposed. Non-partisans favor it by sixteen points.

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Proposition 67
Voter preference among likely voters

Republicans and non-partisans oppose Prop. 67 by greater than two to one margins. Democrats are in favor but by just a narrower fourteen-point margin.

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PPIC Proposition 72
October 2004

Support from Latino likely voters is at 44 percent today, compared to 53 percent in September. Support among white likely voters stands at 40 percent, about the same as last month. Support declines with age and household income and is somewhat lower among men than women (38 percent to 44 percent).

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PPIC Proposition 71
October 2004

Conservatives are less likely than liberals (28 percent to 73 percent), and evangelical Christians are less likely than others (32 percent to 55 percent), to believe federal suport is too small. Among college graduates and voters with incomes of $80,000 or more, six in 10 say the government spends too little on stem cell research.

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PPIC Proposition 63
October 2004

Two in three likely voters (66 percent) believe that the current level of state funding for mental health services is too low, while 13 percent say there is just enough and only five percent think there is too much funding.

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Proposition 72
Voter preference among likely voters

Those supporting John Kerry for President are backing Prop. 72 five to one (60 percent to 12 percent), while voters favoring George W. Bush are opposed 49 percent to 30 percent. Union households are backing the referendum 53 percent to 21 percent, while non-union households favor it by a narrower 43 percent to 31 percent margin.

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Proposition 63
Voter preference among likely voters

The Democrats are overwhelmingly in favor of Prop. 63, 74 percent to 16 percent, while Republicans are opposed, 54 percent to 34 percent. Non-partisans are supportive 58 percent to 24 percent.

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Proposition 67
Voter preference among likely voters

The most frequently mentioned reasons for opposing Prop. 67 are financially related. For example, 28 percent say they "oppose adding a surcharge to phone bills/phone bills are already too high". Another 20 percent mention that "it is another tax increase, already paying too much in taxes".

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Proposition 61
Voter preference among likely voters

Support for Prop. 61 is now at eleven points (46 percent to 35 percent), down from a sixteen-point advantage in August. Democrats and non-partisans are lining up on the "yes" side by a two to one margin, while Republicans are opposed five to three.

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Proposition 71
Voter preference among likely voters

Democrats appear to favor Proposition 71 at nearly twice the rate of Republicans (57 percent versus 32 percent), while Non-partisans/others are 46 percent in favor.

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Proposition 72
Support by Region

Overall, voters have not changed their position on Prop. 72 since PPIC's August polling with 45 percent still in support, 34 percent opposed and 21 percent undecided. However, undecided independent voters appear to be weighing in now (26 percent were undecided in August compared to only 17 percent in September). Support has increased from 45 percent to 49 percent, while those opposed has increased from 29 percent to 34 percent among independent voters.

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PPIC Proposition 72
August 2004

Prop. 72 has support from Democrats (55 percent) and independents (45%), but only tepid support from Republicans (30 percent). Of likely voters, 67 percent believe requiring companies to provide health insurance would create financial burdens for employers. An equal number, however, believe that it is very important for medium and large employers to offer health insurance to employees.

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PPIC Proposition 63
August 2004

Prop. 63 is backed solidly by Democrats (78 percent) and independents (72 percent), but only marginally by Republicans (51 percent). Over 60 percent of likely voters believe that mental health programs are currently receiving insufficient funding; of these voters, 83 percent support Prop. 63. In addition, 34 percent of likely voters believe that tying a specific tax to a specific service is a bad idea, while 55 percent believe it is a good idea.

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Proposition 63
Voter preference among likely voters

Voter awareness of Proposition 63, an initiative to expand mental health services through a tax on those with personal income greater than $1 million, is relatively low. Less than 20 percent of respondents say they had heard of the measure prior to being read a summary of the official ballot description. By a two to one margin (59 percent "Yes" vs. 29 percent "No"), voters are supporting Proposition 63.

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Proposition 67
Voter preference among likely voters

Voter awareness of Proposition 67, the initiative to provide additional funding for emergency medical services through a surcharge on telephone users, is relatively low. Less than 20 percent of respondents say they had heard of the measure prior to being read a summary of the official ballot description. More voters are lining up on the "No" side (47 percent) than the "Yes" side (37 percent) on Proposition 67.

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Proposition 61
Voter preference among likely voters

Voter awareness of Proposition 61, a $750 million dollar bond initiative to expand funding for children’s hospitals around the state, is relatively low. Less than 20 percent of respondents say they had heard of the measure prior to being read a summary of the official ballot description. Initial voter preferences indicate that more voters are disposed to support (47 percent) than oppose (31 percent) Proposition 61.

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Proposition 72
Voter preference among likely voters

Voters are currently disposed to vote "Yes" on Proposition 72, the referendum requiring health care coverage for employees working for large and medium-sized employers.

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Proposition 72
Voter preference among likely voters

June 8 Field Poll results indicate that half of likely voters initially support Prop. 72, the health care coverage requirements referendum. Public opinion varies significantly by political ideology, race/ethnicity, union affiliation, health insurance status, level of concern about not having health insurance in the future, and presidential preference.

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